We need a behavioural change revolution
by Liz Barker, PhD candidate, Economics, University of Stirling
“Behaviour change plays a role in almost two thirds of emissions reductions.”[1]
Behaviour change is a huge component of achieving net-zero in Scotland by 2045; key intergovernmental bodies for climate change such as the IPCC, IEA, CCC and others all agree. They forecast that:
53% of emissions reductions depend on consumers adopting low carbon technologies;
9% of emissions reductions depend on consumer lifestyle changes such as diet change;
Even the remaining 38% achieved by low carbon technologies such as wind turbines needs public support.
Yet we have a long way to go. Millions of people in Scotland will need to change their behaviour if it wants to live sustainably. Adoption so far in Scotland of some of the low carbon technologies that will have a significant impact is limited:
Around 7% of households had installed solar PV by 2023;
Around 2% of households had installed heat pumps by 2023;
Just over 1% of homes were connected to a heat network[2]
Less than 1.4% of privately registered cars in Scotland were fully electric by March 2024. If company-owned EVs are included, the figure rises to 4.7%.[3]
At the University of Stirling, we’ve been focusing on how behavioural science can help drive the heat decarbonisation of domestic homes and have a research collaboration with Midlothian Energy Ltd. Space heating in Scotland’s 2.7 million homes makes up 75% of the total energy demand, making it a large contributor to carbon emissions. About 81% of Scottish households used a gas fuelled boiler as their main heating in 2023. Around 5% of homes use oil heating, particularly in the Highlands and Islands.
Whilst the adoption of heat pumps (electric appliances that transfer and intensify heat from the outside air or ground into a building) will be a significant part of the solution, connections to low carbon heat networks - where heat is distributed to buildings in a neighbourhood from a central energy source(s) - also play a critical role in the heat decarbonisation strategy.
The challenge of heat decarbonisation today is significant, but it is not the first time Scotland has undergone a radical nationwide heating transition. Between 1970 and the 1990s, homes moved from solid fuel heating - typically open coal fires - to gas central heating. However, the transition took time to build momentum; people were emotionally attached to the open coal fire, finding it cheerful and homely compared to central heating. Similarly, today, most people are satisfied with their central heating.
Sustainable and renewable technologies have come a long way in the last few decades. But there is a recognition that it is the interaction between the technical solution and behaviour that will win the day and that winning hearts and minds is crucial. Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Gates Foundation, which has invested millions of dollars into developing and implementing technical solutions to vaccine and drug development and clean water, once said:
“There’s a myth of the foundation that we’re all about science...But there is enormous belief that you can’t get that life-saving technology out there without people adopting it. And that’s the critical next piece.”[4]
There is often an assumption that simply making people aware of new technologies will be enough to drive adoption. Whilst this is important, it is usually not enough to initiate change.
One, people often have good intentions, and a good knowledge and understanding of why they should do it, yet fail to put it into action. It’s often known as the intention-action gap.[5] People seem to experience this often for sustainable behaviours - few sustainable behaviours are easy to change and many low carbon technologies feel complex. In a 2024 YouGov survey, 30% of people said they would be willing to switch to an electric vehicle, yet just 4% drive one. Similarly, 30% say they are willing to better insulate their homes, yet just 14% have done so. Just 1% said they were planning to install a heat pump whilst 17% said they were considering it.[6] Analysis of over 80 trials trying to change behaviours related to climate action found only a negligible impact from information-based initiatives. These included information-based strategies included things like simple messaging, in-home displays, factual feedback or energy labels.[7]
To make headway, we are also going to need to think beyond the over-popular ‘nudges’ - simple changes to the context around people which influence their behaviour and decision-making - made popular by Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein.
Neither information, or nudges are likely to be sufficient. Initiatives to change behaviour will need to be multi-prong, layered and sustained over time. We are going to need to think much more strategically, systemically and dynamically to ensure people adopt low carbon and sustainable technologies and combine many different policy tools together, from social and behavioural science, design thinking and systems thinking to regulation, financial incentives and (genuinely) participatory community engagement.
Liz Barker is a PhD Candidate at the University of Stirling Behavioural Science Centre. With 14+ years’ experience applying behavioural science in the private sector and 20+ years of research and consulting experience with an academic foundation in Economics from Oxbridge, Liz’s research focuses on applying insights from behavioural science to drive sustainable behaviours and the transition to net zero.
[1] International Energy Association, 2021
[2] Scottish Govt (2023), Scottish House Condition Survey
[3] Consumer Scotland (2023) Consumer Experience of Electric Vehicles in Scotland; Transport Scotland (2023) Transport and Travel in Scotland
[4] Financial Times (2011) ‘People Person: Melinda Gates’
[5] Sheeran, P. (2002) ‘Intention—Behavior Relations: A Conceptual and Empirical Review’ European Review of Social Psychology, Vol 12
[6] YouGov (2024) Climate change poll
[7] Nisa et al (2019) ‘Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials testing behavioural interventions to promote household action on climate change’ Nature Communications 10(1):4545
